Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 57.26%. A win for Pen-y-Bont had a probability of 21.7% and a draw had a probability of 21.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.52%) and 2-0 (7.51%). The likeliest Pen-y-Bont win was 1-2 (5.61%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.