Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The New Saints win with a probability of 54.51%. A win for Connah's Quay Nomads had a probability of 23.15% and a draw had a probability of 22.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a The New Saints win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9%) and 2-0 (8.17%). The likeliest Connah's Quay Nomads win was 1-2 (5.82%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.