Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 48.45%. A win for Barry Town United had a probability of 27.75% and a draw had a probability of 23.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.49%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Barry Town United win was 1-2 (6.76%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.