Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 50.72%. A draw had a probability of 27.03% and a win for Central Español had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (10.28%) and 2-0 (10.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.1%) , while for a Central Español win it was 0-1 (8.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.