Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 49.69%. A draw had a probability of 26.19% and a win for Santa Fe had a probability of 24.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.47%) and 2-0 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.31%) , while for a Santa Fe win it was 0-1 (7.88%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.