Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 47.51%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 26.87% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.27%) and 2-0 (8.6%). The likeliest Lazio win was 0-1 (8.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.