Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 50.39%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Bologna had a probability of 23.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.34%), while for a Bologna win it was 0-1 (8.34%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.