Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 44.14%. A win for Napoli had a probability of 28.99% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.82%) and 2-0 (8.25%). The likeliest Napoli win was 0-1 (9.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.

Result
Lazio	Draw	Napoli
44.14% ( -0.25)	26.87% ( -0.05)	28.99% ( 0.3)

Both teams to score 49.25% (

0.32)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.47% (

0.32)

55.53% (

-0.33)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.29% (

0.27)

76.71% (

-0.27)

Lazio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75% (

0.02)

25% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.34% (

0.03)

59.66% (

-0.03)

Napoli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.67% (

0.4)

34.33% (

-0.4)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.97% (

0.43)

71.03% (

-0.43)

Score Analysis

Lazio 44.14%

Napoli 28.99%

Draw 26.87%

Lazio	Draw	Napoli
1-0 @ 11.89% ( -0.15) 2-1 @ 8.82% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8.25% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 4.07% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.81% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.18% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.41% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.32% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.39% Total : 44.14%	1-1 @ 12.72% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.58% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 4.71% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.85% Total : 26.87%	0-1 @ 9.18% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 6.8% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 4.91% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 2.42% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 1.75% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.68% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.25% Total : 28.99%