Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 45.53%. A win for Lecce had a probability of 27.75% and a draw had a probability of 26.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Atalanta BC win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.12%) and 0-2 (8.45%). The likeliest Lecce win was 1-0 (8.76%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.