Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 44.2%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 28.99% and a draw had a probability of 26.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Atalanta BC win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.91%) and 0-2 (8.06%). The likeliest Lazio win was 1-0 (8.95%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.