Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 39.28%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 33.22% and a draw had a probability of 27.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Atalanta BC win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.22%) and 0-2 (7.34%). The likeliest Lazio win was 1-0 (10.47%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.