Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bologna win with a probability of 45.94%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 27.1% and a draw had a probability of 26.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bologna win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.18%) and 2-1 (8.59%). The likeliest Lazio win was 0-1 (9.07%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.