Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 47.46%. A draw had a probability of 28.95% and a win for Genoa had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.52%) and 2-1 (8.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.63%) , while for a Genoa win it was 0-1 (9.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.