Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 61.3%. A draw had a probability of 22.59% and a win for Genoa had a probability of 16.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.06%) and 2-1 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.66%) , while for a Genoa win it was 0-1 (5.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.