Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 45.81%. A win for Genoa had a probability of 28.36% and a draw had a probability of 25.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Atalanta BC win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.14%) and 0-2 (8.21%). The likeliest Genoa win was 1-0 (8.26%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11% likelihood.