Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 43.54%. A win for Chelsea had a probability of 31.71% and a draw had a probability of 24.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Atalanta BC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.97%) and 2-0 (7%). The likeliest Chelsea win was 1-2 (7.53%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood.