Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 41.81%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 29.21% and a draw had a probability of 28.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.54%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 0-1 (10.42%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.