Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 48.89%. A win for Napoli had a probability of 26.02% and a draw had a probability of 25.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (10.08%) and 2-0 (8.23%). The likeliest Napoli win was 0-1 (6.86%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.