Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 38.55%. A win for Roma had a probability of 34.33% and a draw had a probability of 27.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.35%) and 2-0 (6.86%). The likeliest Roma win was 0-1 (10.05%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.