Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 64.93%. A draw had a probability of 23.24% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 11.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.17%) and 2-1 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.01%) , while for a Lecce win it was 0-1 (5.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood.