Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 40.78%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 29.79% and a draw had a probability of 29.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (7.63%). The likeliest Lazio win was 0-1 (10.29%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.