Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 37.44%. A win for Sassuolo had a probability of 34.63% and a draw had a probability of 27.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.43%) and 2-0 (6.49%). The likeliest Sassuolo win was 0-1 (9.94%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood.