Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pisa win with a probability of 37.63%. A win for Sassuolo had a probability of 35.19% and a draw had a probability of 27.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pisa win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.8%) and 2-0 (6.83%). The likeliest Sassuolo win was 0-1 (11.13%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.