Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 50.4%. A draw had a probability of 28.26% and a win for Parma had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.17%) and 2-1 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.58%) , while for a Parma win it was 0-1 (8.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.