Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 40.89%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 31.45% and a draw had a probability of 27.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.7%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 0-1 (9.88%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.