Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 33

Apr 23, 2025 at 5.30pm UK

Sardegna Arena

Cagliari
1 - 2
Fiorentina

Piccoli (7')
Luis Palomino (65'), Piccoli (79')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Gosens (36'), Beltran (48')
Parisi (84'), Zaniolo (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Serie A clash between Cagliari and Fiorentina, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Cagliari

All competitions

Last Game: Inter Milan 3-1 Cagliari
Saturday, April 12 at 5pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Fiorentina

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Fiorentina 2-2 Celje
Thursday, April 17 at 5.45pm in Conference League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 47.99%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 26.46% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.31%) and 0-2 (8.72%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 1-0 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.

Result
Cagliari	Draw	Fiorentina
26.46% ( 0.16)	25.56% ( 0.38)	47.99% ( -0.54)

Both teams to score 51.45% (

-1.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.15% (

-1.43)

51.85% (

1.44)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.39% (

-1.25)

73.61% (

1.26)

Cagliari Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.63% (

-0.63)

34.37% (

0.64)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.93% (

-0.68)

71.08% (

0.69)

Fiorentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.38% (

-0.82)

21.62% (

0.82)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.28% (

-1.27)

54.73% (

1.28)

Score Analysis

Cagliari 26.46%

Fiorentina 47.98%

Draw 25.55%

Cagliari	Draw	Fiorentina
1-0 @ 7.94% ( 0.31) 2-1 @ 6.49% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 4.24% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 2.31% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 1.77% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 1.51% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.21% Total : 26.46%	1-1 @ 12.15% ( 0.18) 0-0 @ 7.43% ( 0.42) 2-2 @ 4.97% ( -0.14) 3-3 @ 0.9% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.55%	0-1 @ 11.37% ( 0.36) 1-2 @ 9.31% ( -0.09) 0-2 @ 8.72% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 4.75% ( -0.17) 0-3 @ 4.45% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 2.54% ( -0.14) 1-4 @ 1.82% ( -0.11) 0-4 @ 1.7% ( -0.07) 2-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.08) Other @ 2.35% Total : 47.98%