Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 38.92%. A win for Celje had a probability of 37.22% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.08%) and 0-2 (5.55%). The likeliest Celje win was 2-1 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Fiorentina in this match.