UEFA Conference League

Conference League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg

Apr 10, 2025 at 8pm UK

Stadion Z'dezele

Celje
1 - 2
Fiorentina

(Fiorentina win 4-3 on aggregate)

Delaurier-Chaubet (68' pen.)
Vuklisevic (55')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Ranieri (27'), Mandragora (62' pen.)
Moreno (35'), Ranieri (49'), Zaniolo (53'), Dodo (87'), Kean (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Conference League clash between Celje and Fiorentina, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Celje

All competitions

Conference League

Last Game: Bravo 1-2 Celje
Sunday, April 6 at 4.30pm in Slovenian PrvaLiga

Goals
for

Fiorentina

All competitions

Conference League

Last Game: AC Milan 2-2 Fiorentina
Saturday, April 5 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 38.92%. A win for Celje had a probability of 37.22% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.08%) and 0-2 (5.55%). The likeliest Celje win was 2-1 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Fiorentina in this match.

Result
Celje	Draw	Fiorentina
37.22% ( 0)	23.85% ( -0)	38.92% ( 0)

Both teams to score 62.03% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.86% (

0.02)

40.14% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.49% (

0.02)

62.51% (

-0.02)

Celje Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.34% (

0.01)

21.65% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.21% (

0.02)

54.78% (

-0.02)

Fiorentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.17% (

0.01)

20.82% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.5% (

0.02)

53.5% (

-0.02)

Score Analysis

Celje 37.22%

Fiorentina 38.92%

Draw 23.85%

Celje	Draw	Fiorentina
2-1 @ 8.28% 1-0 @ 6.9% ( -0) 2-0 @ 5.28% ( -0) 3-1 @ 4.22% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.31% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.69% 4-1 @ 1.62% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.27% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.03% Other @ 2.63% Total : 37.22%	1-1 @ 10.82% 2-2 @ 6.5% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.51% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.73% ( 0) Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.85%	1-2 @ 8.49% 0-1 @ 7.08% ( -0) 0-2 @ 5.55% ( -0) 1-3 @ 4.44% ( 0) 2-3 @ 3.4% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.9% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.74% 2-4 @ 1.33% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.14% Other @ 2.84% Total : 38.92%