UEFA Conference League

Conference League | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg

Mar 13, 2025 at 5.45pm UK

Stockhorn Arena

Lugano
5 - 4
Celje

Mahmoud (21'), Koutsias (42', 80'), dos Santos Correia (44'), Doumbia (118')
dos Santos Correia (51'), Koutsias (61'), Osigwe (105+3'), Steffen (112'), Cimignani (112'), Croci-Torti (121')

FT
(aet)

Seslar (40'), Svetlin (68'), Kucys (90+5' pen.), Nieto (97')
Delaurier-Chaubet (24'), Svetlin (105'), Silva (112')

Celje win 3-1 on penalties

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Conference League clash between Lugano and Celje, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lugano

All competitions

Conference League

Last Game: Sion 2-1 Lugano
Sunday, March 9 at 3.30pm in Swiss Super League

Goals
for

Celje

All competitions

Conference League

Last Game: Celje 2-2 Primorje
Sunday, March 9 at 4.30pm in Slovenian PrvaLiga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugano win with a probability of 52.31%. A win for Celje had a probability of 25.78% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lugano win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.34%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Celje win was 1-2 (6.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.72%).

Result
Lugano	Draw	Celje
52.31% ( 0.01)	21.92% ( -0)	25.78% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 63.08% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.77% (

0.01)

36.22% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.66% (

0.01)

58.34% (

-0.01)

Lugano Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.94% (

0.01)

14.06% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.36% (

0.02)

41.64% (

-0.02)

Celje Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.39% (

-0)

26.6% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.17% (

-0)

61.83% (

Score Analysis

Lugano 52.31%

Celje 25.78%

Draw 21.92%

Lugano	Draw	Celje
2-1 @ 9.53% 1-0 @ 7.34% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.2% ( 0) 3-1 @ 6.23% ( 0) 3-0 @ 4.71% ( 0) 3-2 @ 4.13% ( 0) 4-1 @ 3.06% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.31% ( 0) 4-2 @ 2.02% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.2% ( 0) 5-0 @ 0.91% ( 0) Other @ 3.68% Total : 52.31%	1-1 @ 9.72% ( -0) 2-2 @ 6.31% 0-0 @ 3.74% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.82% Other @ 0.33% Total : 21.92%	1-2 @ 6.43% ( -0) 0-1 @ 4.95% ( -0) 0-2 @ 3.28% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.84% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.79% 0-3 @ 1.45% ( -0) 1-4 @ 0.94% 2-4 @ 0.92% Other @ 2.18% Total : 25.78%