Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugano win with a probability of 39.4%. A win for Sion had a probability of 35.35% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugano win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.6%) and 0-2 (6.34%). The likeliest Sion win was 1-0 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.9%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.