Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugano win with a probability of 41.96%. A win for St Gallen had a probability of 34.58% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugano win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.02%) and 0-2 (5.87%). The likeliest St Gallen win was 2-1 (7.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.