Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Legia Warsaw win with a probability of 44.14%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 31.44% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Legia Warsaw win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.68%) and 2-0 (6.94%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (7.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.