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UEFA Conference League

Lugano
Conference League | League Stage
Oct 3, 2024 at 8pm UK
Stockhorn Arena
HJK logo

Lugano
3 - 0
HJK Helsinki

Papadopoulos (34'), Marques (56'), dos Santos Correia (90+2')
Hajdari (8')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Coverage of the Conference League League Stage clash between Lugano and HJK Helsinki.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lugano

All competitions
Last Game: Lugano 2-1 Winterthur
Sunday, September 29 at 3.30pm in Swiss Super League

HJK Helsinki

All competitions
Europa Conference League
Last Game: HJK Helsinki 0-1 Ilves
Saturday, September 28 at 5.30pm in Finnish Veikkausliiga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugano win with a probability of 45.59%. A win for HJK Helsinki had a probability of 31.05% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lugano win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.58%) and 2-0 (6.57%). The likeliest HJK Helsinki win was 1-2 (7.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lugano would win this match.

Result
LuganoDrawHJK Helsinki
45.59% (0.297 0.3)23.36% (0.103 0.1)31.05% (-0.4 -0.4)
Both teams to score 61.97% (-0.597 -0.6)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.55% (-0.692 -0.69)39.44% (0.693 0.69)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.21% (-0.727 -0.73)61.79% (0.72499999999999 0.72)
Lugano Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.35% (-0.157 -0.16)17.64% (0.156 0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.74% (-0.273 -0.27)48.25% (0.271 0.27)
HJK Helsinki Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.25% (-0.58 -0.58)24.75% (0.578 0.58)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.69% (-0.815 -0.81)59.31% (0.815 0.81)
Score Analysis
    Lugano 45.59%
    HJK Helsinki 31.05%
    Draw 23.35%
LuganoDrawHJK Helsinki
2-1 @ 9.18% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
1-0 @ 7.58% (0.205 0.21)
2-0 @ 6.57% (0.146 0.15)
3-1 @ 5.31% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-0 @ 3.8% (0.065 0.07)
3-2 @ 3.71% (-0.061 -0.06)
4-1 @ 2.3% (-0.011 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.65% (0.02 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.61% (-0.034 -0.03)
Other @ 3.9%
Total : 45.59%
1-1 @ 10.57% (0.11 0.11)
2-2 @ 6.41% (-0.073 -0.07)
0-0 @ 4.37% (0.139 0.14)
3-3 @ 1.72% (-0.058 -0.06)
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 23.35%
1-2 @ 7.39% (-0.046 -0.05)
0-1 @ 6.1% (0.095000000000001 0.1)
0-2 @ 4.26% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
1-3 @ 3.44% (-0.08 -0.08)
2-3 @ 2.98% (-0.085 -0.09)
0-3 @ 1.98% (-0.035 -0.03)
1-4 @ 1.2% (-0.049 -0.05)
2-4 @ 1.04% (-0.048 -0.05)
Other @ 2.67%
Total : 31.05%

How you voted: Lugano vs HJK Helsinki

Lugano
71.4%
Draw
23.8%
HJK Helsinki
4.8%
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