UEFA Conference League

Conference League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg

Mar 6, 2025 at 8pm UK

Stadion Z'dezele

Celje
1 - 0
Lugano

(5-5 on aggregate)

Svetlin (23')
Kucys (52'), Nemanic (90+4')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Hajdari (16'), Bottani (59')
Papadopoulos (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Conference League clash between Celje and Lugano, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Celje

All competitions

Conference League

Last Game: Ljubljana 2-0 Celje
Sunday, March 2 at 2pm in Slovenian PrvaLiga

Goals
for

Lugano

All competitions

Conference League

Last Game: Lugano 0-3 FC Zurich
Sunday, March 2 at 1.15pm in Swiss Super League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Celje win with a probability of 43.67%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 33.85% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Celje win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.06%) and 2-0 (5.51%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (7.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Celje would win this match.

Result
Celje	Draw	Lugano
43.67% ( 0.2)	22.48% ( -0.02)	33.85% ( -0.19)

Both teams to score 66.57% (

-0)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.06% (

0.02)

33.94% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.2% (

0.03)

55.8% (

-0.03)

Celje Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.78% (

0.08)

16.22% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.29% (

0.16)

45.71% (

-0.16)

Lugano Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.46% (

-0.09)

20.54% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.94% (

-0.13)

53.06% (

0.13)

Score Analysis

Celje 43.67%

Lugano 33.85%

Draw 22.48%

Celje	Draw	Lugano
2-1 @ 8.72% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 6.06% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.51% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 5.29% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 4.19% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.34% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.41% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.9% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.52% ( 0.02) 4-3 @ 1% ( 0) Other @ 3.72% Total : 43.67%	1-1 @ 9.59% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.9% ( -0) 0-0 @ 3.33% ( -0) 3-3 @ 2.21% ( -0) Other @ 0.45% Total : 22.48%	1-2 @ 7.59% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 5.27% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 4.17% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 4% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 3.64% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.2% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.58% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.44% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.95% Total : 33.85%