Preview: Senegal vs. Iraq - prediction, team news, lineups

Needing a victory in their final World Cup 2026 Group I fixture against Iraq, Senegal head into Friday’s meeting at BMO Field fully aware of the pressure they face to finish as one of the eight best third-placed teams.

With Iraq also retaining an outside chance of progressing in third, the group’s final fixture promises to be an intriguing one for those perusing the best World Cup betting sites.

Match preview

While there will be an inquest into what went awry if they exit in the group stage of the 2026 World Cup, Senegal have one chance to delay such investigations and extend their stay in North America.

Although Africa's second highest-ranked side had to contend with one of the pre-tournament favourites in France and a Norway team boasting arguably the competition's best centre-forward, the Lions of Teranga were still backed to emerge from those encounters with something.

However, the Lions have floundered spectacularly, with Pape Thiaw's side effectively finding themselves on the brink of elimination due to self-inflicted wounds.

Having failed to capitalise on their strong first-half showing against Les Bleus before an inspired Kylian Mbappe turned the game in the 2018 champions' favour, the African side then paid the price for a glut of defensive mistakes against Norway.

Kalidou Koulibaly bore much of the brunt for Senegal's 3-2 defeat against Erling Haaland and company, with the experienced defender eventually put out of his misery against the Norwegians when he was withdrawn in the 72nd minute.

Fresh from that error-strewn Koulibaly display, Senegal now head into their final group game ranked bottom of all 12 third-placed teams, while the Czech Republic occupy eighth in that mini table after picking up a point.

The task is simple: secure a convincing victory over Iraq to improve their chances of sneaking through to the first knockout round.

However, the one-time Africa Cup of Nations champions will have defensive concerns on their mind, which Friday's opponents will look to exploit.

While the Lions of Mesopotamia have scored just once in defeats to Norway (4-1) and France (3-0), Graham Arnold's team will be well aware of Senegal's recent tendency to concede, with Thiaw's men letting in three goals in three of their last four matches in all competitions and friendlies, keeping only one clean sheet in that run — a goalless draw with Saudi Arabia.

Nonetheless, even with Senegal's recent inability to secure a win before or during the global tournament, Iraq share a similar tale, given that their last victory was a 1-0 success over Andorra at the end of May.

Since that friendly win, Usood al-Rafidayn have held Spain to a creditable draw, suffered a 2-0 defeat against Venezuela and been beaten in the tournament proper by Norway and France, conceding seven times at the finals.

Heading into this pivotal fixture with two wins from six in 2026, there is scant momentum to suggest that the Asian nation will advance to the first knockout round in their first World Cup appearance since 1986.

In an even worse position than Senegal, their progression is out of their hands, especially given their minus-six goal difference, meaning maximum points may still not be enough after heavy losses in their first two Group I games.

Senegal World Cup form:

Senegal form (all competitions):

Iraq World Cup form:

Iraq form (all competitions):

Team News

Thiaw must make a major call on Koulibaly after the centre-back's mistakes against Norway, with Chelsea's Mamadou Sarr and Abdoulaye Seck options to replace the captain.

In truth, the former Napoli defender is likely to start such a pivotal fixture, as is Sadio Mane, who set up one of Ismaila Sarr's goals last time out but has yet to set the tournament alight in the opening two matchdays.

Sarr responded to his failure to score against France with a strong display in the 3-2 defeat to Norway, while Nicolas Jackson is expected to complete the front three after registering an assist against the Vikings.

Edouard Mendy is, however, confirmed to miss out after suffering a knee injury during a mixed outing against Haaland and company on Monday.

As for Iraq, Aymen Hussein's involvement for Usood al-Rafidayn is in doubt after the forward went off before the half-hour mark with an injury.

Hussein's possible absence would be a major blow for the side currently bottom of Group I, given he netted eight times in qualifying and has scored Iraq's only goal at the 2026 finals.

It will be interesting to see if Arnold hands Mohanad Ali his first World Cup start, with the striker's 27 international goals bettered only by Hussein's 34 in this squad, while Ali Al-Hamadi is backed to lead the line.

Senegal possible starting lineup:

Diaw; Diatta, Koulibaly, Niakhate, Diouf; Camara, I Gueye, P Gueye; Sarr, Jackson, Mane

Iraq possible starting lineup:

Basil; Ali, Tahseen, Hashem, Doski; Ismail, Al-Ammari, Iqbal; Qasem, Al-Hamadi, Bayesh

We say: Senegal 3-1 Iraq

Senegal have been undermined by profligacy in attack against France and defensive looseness against Norway, leaving them on the brink of elimination.

Still without a World Cup clean sheet since their 2002 debut against Les Bleus, we do not expect Thiaw's men to claim a second shutout on the global stage.

Nonetheless, the Lions of Teranga are tipped to secure maximum points on Friday, even if it remains to be seen whether that will be enough for them to finish among the eight best third-placed sides.

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