Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 71.07%. A draw had a probability of 19.91% and a win for Alverca had a probability of 9.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.93%) and 3-0 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (9.2%) , while for a Alverca win it was 0-1 (3.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 16.6% likelihood.