Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alverca win with a probability of 44.19%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 31.14% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Alverca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.77%) and 2-0 (6.6%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-2 (7.67%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood.