Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 73.02%. A draw had a probability of 18.52% and a win for AVS had a probability of 8.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (15.62%) and 0-3 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (8.09%) , while for a AVS win it was 1-0 (4.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.