Primeira Liga Gameweek 10
Nov 1, 2026 3.30pm
Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Arouca vs Nacional - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Arouca

All competitions
Last game
Oct 24, 2026 6.00pm
Alverca 0 - 1 Arouca
Goals scored
12
Top scorer
Iván Barbero

Nacional

All competitions
Last game
Oct 25, 2026 6.00pm
Nacional 1 - 0 Braga
Goals scored
10
Top scorer
Abdel Kader Njoya

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Arouca win with a probability of 49.51%. A win for Nacional has a probability of 25.92% and a draw has a probability of 24.57%.

The most likely scoreline for a Arouca win is 1-0 with a probability of 10.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.98%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Nacional win is 1-2 (6.82%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.7%).

Result

Arouca 49.51% ▲ (+0.04)
Draw 24.57% ▲ (+0.02)
Nacional 25.92% ▼ (-0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.91% ▲ (+0.14)

Goals

Over 1.5 76.7% ▲ (+0.11)
Under 1.5 23.3% ▼ (-0.11)
Over 2.5 53.37% ▲ (+0.16)
Under 2.5 46.63% ▼ (-0.16)
Over 3.5 30.22% ▲ (+0.18)
Under 3.5 69.78% ▼ (-0.18)
Over 4.5 17.33% ▲ (+0.14)
Under 4.5 82.67% ▼ (-0.15)

First Half Winner

Arouca 32.02% ▼ (-0.04)
Draw 43.91% ▼ (-0.02)
Nacional 24.07% ▲ (+0.06)

Team To Score First

Arouca 55.35%
No Goal 6.27% ▼ (-0.06)
Nacional 38.38% ▲ (+0.06)

Corners

Over 8 60.96% ▲ (+0.07)
Equal 8 11.03%
Under 8 28.01% ▼ (-0.06)
Over 9 49.43% ▲ (+0.04)
Equal 9 11.53% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 9 39.04% ▼ (-0.07)
Over 10.5 38.38% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 10.5 61.62% ▼ (-0.04)

Arouca Goals

Over 1.5 47.99% ▲ (+0.17)
Under 1.5 52.01% ▼ (-0.17)
Over 2.5 22.38% ▲ (+0.12)
Under 2.5 77.62% ▼ (-0.12)
Over 3.5 8.58% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 3.5 91.42% ▼ (-0.07)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5 62.18% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 0.5 37.82% ▼ (-0.08)
Over 1.5 28.67% ▲ (+0.10)
Under 1.5 71.33% ▼ (-0.10)
Over 2.5 10% ▲ (+0.06)
Under 2.5 90% ▼ (-0.05)
Over 3.5 2.81% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 3.5 97.19% ▼ (-0.04)

Score analysis

Arouca 49.5%
Draw 24.58%
Nacional 25.92%
Arouca
1-0 @ 10.32% ▼ (-0.04)
2-1 @ 9.98% ▲ (+0.01)
2-0 @ 8.03% ▼ (-0.03)
3-1 @ 5.12% ▲ (+0.01)
3-0 @ 4.78% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 2.85% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 8.42% ▲ (+0.06)
Total : 49.5%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.7% ▼ (-0.03)
0-0 @ 6.27% ▼ (-0.06)
2-2 @ 5.4% ▲ (+0.05)
3-3 @ 1.05% ▲ (+0.04)
Other @ 0.16% ▲ (+0.02)
Total : 24.58%
Nacional
1-2 @ 6.82% ▼ (-0.01)
0-1 @ 6.71% ▼ (-0.03)
0-2 @ 3.6% ▼ (-0.01)
1-3 @ 2.37%
2-3 @ 2.2% ▲ (+0.02)
0-3 @ 1.57% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 2.65% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 25.92%

Head to Head

Primeira Liga
Feb 21, 2026 3.30pm
3
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estádio Municipal de Arouca
  • Alfonso Trezza 47' goal
  • Dylan Nandín 65' yellowcard
  • Pablo Gozálbez 65' yellowcard
  • Dylan Nandín 66' yellowcard
  • Pablo Gozálbez 66' yellowcard
  • Hyun-ju Lee 67' goal
  • Dylan Nandín 72' goal
  • Diogo Monteiro 85' yellowcard
  • Yellu Santiago 85' yellowcard
  • Miguel Puche 89' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Deivison 46'
  • yellowcard Joel Silva 71'
  • yellowcard Jesús Ramírez 71'
  • yellowcard Pablo Ruan 71'
  • yellowcard Witiness Quembo 78'
  • yellowcard Witiness Quembo 79'
  • yellowcard Gabriel Veron 79'
  • yellowcard Daniel Jr 79'
Primeira Liga
Sep 20, 2025 3.30pm
1
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Primeira Liga Gameweek 20
Feb 1, 2025 3.30pm
1
2
HT : 1 2
FT Estadio da Madeira
  • Ze Vitor 24' yellowcard
  • Daniel Penha 37' yellowcard
  • Ulisses 45'+1' goal
  • Ulisses 52' yellowcard
  • Luis Esteves 71' yellowcard
  • Chiheb Abidi 87' yellowcard
  • Andre Sousa 90'+8' yellowcard
  • goal Pablo Gozalbez 5'
  • goal Henrique Araujo 26'
  • redcard Boris Popovic 62'
  • yellowcard Pedro Santos 90'+8'
Primeira Liga Gameweek 3
Aug 25, 2024 3.30pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Municipal de Arouca
  • Henrique Araujo 27' goal
  • Ivo Rodrigues 74' yellowcard
  • Nico Mantl 90'+7' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Gustavo Garcia 22'
  • yellowcard Adrian Butzke 49'
  • yellowcard Luis Esteves 73'
  • yellowcard Tiago Reis 76'
  • yellowcard Tiago Margarido 90'+2'
  • yellowcard Ze Vitor 90'+3'
  • yellowcard Matheus Dias 90'+6'
Primeira Liga
Jan 28, 2017 4.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Washington 48' yellowcard
  • Salvador Agra 96' goal
  • yellowcard Mateus 25'
  • yellowcard Adilson Goiano 53'
  • yellowcard Jorge Intima 55'
  • yellowcard Rui Sacramento 80'
  • goal Nuno Miguel Prata Coelho 84'
  • yellowcard Jubal 89'
  • redcard Rui Sacramento 93'
Primeira Liga
Aug 21, 2016 6.00pm
2
0
HT : 2 0
FT
  • Rafael Crivellaro 24' goal
  • Zequinha 30' goal
  • Nuno Coelho 42' yellowcard