Primeira Liga Gameweek 6
Nacional
Sep 12, 2026 3.30pm
1
3
HT : 0 3
FT Estádio da Madeira
Alverca
  • Matchoi Djaló 81' goal
  • yellowcard Yaya Bojang 18'
  • goal Chissumba 34'
  • goal Dawda Camara 36'
  • goal Dawda Camara 42'
  • yellowcard Dawda Camara 48'
  • yellowcard Diogo Spencer 73'

Nacional vs Alverca - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions
Last game
Sep 5, 2026 8.30pm
Sporting Lisbon 2 - 0 Nacional
Goals scored
7
Top scorer
Matchoi Djaló

Alverca

All competitions
Last game
Sep 5, 2026 6.00pm
Alverca 1 - 2 Braga
Goals scored
8
Top scorer
Dawda Camara

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 46.31%. A win for Alverca had a probability of 28.2% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.06%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Alverca win was 1-2 (7.03%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.

Result

Nacional 46.31% ▼ (-0.04)
Draw 25.5% ▼ (-0.02)
Alverca 28.2% ▲ (+0.06)

Both Teams to Score: 

57.77% ▼ (-0.01)

Goals

Over 1.5 77.51% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 1.5 22.49% ▼ (-0.03)
Over 2.5 54.61% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 2.5 45.39% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 3.5 32.37% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 3.5 67.63% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 4.5 18.68% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 4.5 81.32% ▼ (-0.03)

First Half Winner

Nacional 29.7% ▼ (-0.02)
Draw 48.42% ▼ (-0.05)
Alverca 21.87% ▲ (+0.06)

Team To Score First

Nacional 53.66% ▼ (-0.03)
No Goal 6.65% ▼ (-0.01)
Alverca 39.69% ▲ (+0.04)

Corners

Over 8 61.58% ▼ (-0.02)
Equal 8 11.31%
Under 8 27.11% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 9 49.7% ▼ (-0.01)
Equal 9 11.88% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 9 38.42% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 10.5 38.29% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 10.5 61.71% ▲ (+0.01)

Nacional Goals

Over 1.5 46.98%
Under 1.5 53.02%
Over 2.5 21.82% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 2.5 78.18% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 3.5 8.5%
Under 3.5 91.5%

Alverca Goals

Over 0.5 64.83% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 0.5 35.17% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 1.5 31.86% ▲ (+0.06)
Under 1.5 68.14% ▼ (-0.05)
Over 2.5 11.58% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 2.5 88.42% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 3.5 3.5% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 3.5 96.5% ▼ (-0.02)

Score analysis

Nacional 46.32%
Draw 25.5%
Alverca 28.19%
Nacional
2-1 @ 9.61%
1-0 @ 9.06% ▼ (-0.01)
2-0 @ 7.19% ▼ (-0.01)
3-1 @ 5.02% ▼ (-0.02)
3-0 @ 3.91%
3-2 @ 3.16%
Other @ 8.37%
Total : 46.32%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.55% ▼ (-0.01)
0-0 @ 6.65% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 5.94% ▲ (+0.02)
3-3 @ 1.23%
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.5%
Alverca
1-2 @ 7.03% ▲ (+0.02)
0-1 @ 6.79%
0-2 @ 4.15%
1-3 @ 2.74%
2-3 @ 2.42% ▲ (+0.01)
0-3 @ 1.69% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 3.37% ▲ (+0.02)
Total : 28.19%

Head to Head

Primeira Liga
Nacional
Apr 18, 2026 3.30pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estádio da Madeira
Alverca
  • Filipe Soares 63' yellowcard
  • Jesús Ramírez 67' goal
  • Matheus Dias 87' yellowcard
  • Pablo Ruan 90'+3' yellowcard
  • João Aurélio 90'+3' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Davy Jean Carl Kamon Gui 46'
  • yellowcard Mathis Clairicia 75'
  • yellowcard Marko Milovanović 75'
  • yellowcard Vasco Moreira 75'
  • yellowcard Marko Milovanović 77'
  • yellowcard Vasco Moreira 77'
  • yellowcard Zakaria Kessary 88'
Primeira Liga
Alverca
Dec 7, 2025 6.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Nacional
  • Nabili Touaizi 71' yellowcard
  • Marko Milovanovic 88' goal
  • yellowcard 90'+3'
  • yellowcard Deivison Souza Brito 90'+3'

Form Data

Sporting Lisbon 2 - 0 Nacional
Nacional 2 - 3 Estrela Amadora
Guimaraes 1 - 0 Nacional
Nacional 2 - 0 Estoril
Santa Clara 2 - 2 Nacional
Maritimo 1 - 0 Nacional
Alverca 1 - 2 Braga
Alverca 1 - 1 Santa Clara
Sporting Lisbon 3 - 1 Alverca
Alverca 2 - 2 Estrela Amadora
Porto 2 - 0 Alverca
Alverca 0 - 0 Sporting CP II