Primeira Liga Gameweek 6
Sep 12, 2026 3.30pm
Estádio da Madeira

Nacional vs Alverca - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions
Last game
Sep 5, 2026 8.30pm
Sporting Lisbon 2 - 0 Nacional
Goals scored
6
Top scorer
Pablo Ruan

Alverca

All competitions
Last game
Sep 5, 2026 6.00pm
Alverca 1 - 2 Braga
Goals scored
5
Top scorer
Vivaldo Semedo

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Nacional win with a probability of 46.35%. A win for Alverca has a probability of 28.14% and a draw has a probability of 25.51%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (9.07%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Alverca win is 1-2 (7.02%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.56%).

Result

Nacional 46.35% (+0.43)
Draw 25.51% (+0.13)
Alverca 28.14% (-0.56)

Both Teams to Score: 

57.78% (-0.55)

Goals

Over 1.5 77.49% (-0.45)
Under 1.5 22.51% (+0.45)
Over 2.5 54.58% (-0.72)
Under 2.5 45.42% (+0.72)
Over 3.5 32.36% (-0.67)
Under 3.5 67.64% (+0.66)
Over 4.5 18.66% (-0.50)
Under 4.5 81.34% (+0.50)

First Half Winner

Nacional 29.71%
Draw 48.47% (+0.07)
Alverca 21.82% (-0.08)

Team To Score First

Nacional 53.68% (-0.11)
No Goal 6.66% (+0.17)
Alverca 39.66% (-0.07)

Corners

Over 8 61.59% (-0.09)
Equal 8 11.31%
Under 8 27.1% (+0.09)
Over 9 49.71% (-0.08)
Equal 9 11.89%
Under 9 38.41% (+0.08)
Over 10.5 38.3% (-0.07)
Under 10.5 61.7% (+0.07)

Nacional Goals

Over 1.5 46.98% (-0.06)
Under 1.5 53.02% (+0.06)
Over 2.5 21.83% (-0.11)
Under 2.5 78.17% (+0.11)
Over 3.5 8.5% (-0.09)
Under 3.5 91.5% (+0.08)

Alverca Goals

Over 0.5 64.8% (-0.57)
Under 0.5 35.2% (+0.57)
Over 1.5 31.81% (-0.80)
Under 1.5 68.19% (+0.79)
Over 2.5 11.55% (-0.55)
Under 2.5 88.45% (+0.55)
Over 3.5 3.49% (-0.25)
Under 3.5 96.51% (+0.25)

Score analysis

Nacional 46.35%
Draw 25.51%
Alverca 28.15%
Nacional
2-1 @ 9.61% (+0.04)
1-0 @ 9.07% (+0.25)
2-0 @ 7.2% (+0.19)
3-1 @ 5.03% (+0.03)
3-0 @ 3.91% (+0.07)
3-2 @ 3.16% (-0.05)
Other @ 8.37% (-0.07)
Total : 46.35%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.56% (+0.12)
0-0 @ 6.66% (+0.17)
2-2 @ 5.93% (-0.09)
3-3 @ 1.23% (-0.06)
Other @ 0.13% (-0.02)
Total : 25.51%
Alverca
1-2 @ 7.02% (-0.10)
0-1 @ 6.79% (+0.06)
0-2 @ 4.15% (-0.02)
1-3 @ 2.74% (-0.09)
2-3 @ 2.41% (-0.09)
0-3 @ 1.68% (-0.08)
Other @ 3.36% (-0.23)
Total : 28.15%

Head to Head

Primeira Liga
Apr 18, 2026 3.30pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estádio da Madeira
  • Filipe Soares 63' yellowcard
  • Jesús Ramírez 67' goal
  • Matheus Dias 87' yellowcard
  • Pablo Ruan 90'+3' yellowcard
  • João Aurélio 90'+3' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Davy Jean Carl Kamon Gui 46'
  • yellowcard Mathis Clairicia 75'
  • yellowcard Marko Milovanović 75'
  • yellowcard Vasco Moreira 75'
  • yellowcard Marko Milovanović 77'
  • yellowcard Vasco Moreira 77'
  • yellowcard Zakaria Kessary 88'
Primeira Liga
Dec 7, 2025 6.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Nabili Touaizi 71' yellowcard
  • Marko Milovanovic 88' goal
  • yellowcard 90'+3'
  • yellowcard Deivison Souza Brito 90'+3'