Premier League | Gameweek 12
Nov 20, 2021 at 3pm UK
Carrow Road
Norwich2 - 1Southampton
Dean Smith will start life in the Norwich City dugout with a home game against Southampton on Saturday, with the Canaries looking to make it back-to-back Premier League victories.
Norwich are still bottom of the table despite beating Brentford before the international break, while Southampton occupy 13th position, picking up 14 points from their opening 11 matches.
Read more.
Match preview
Daniel Farke's reward for leading Norwich to their first victory of the 2021-22 Premier League campaign was the sack, with the German relieved of his duties just hours after the 2-1 success over Brentford. Smith, who was dismissed by Aston Villa on November 7, has taken on the role at Carrow Road, penning a two-and-a-half-year deal, and the 50-year-old will be determined to get off to the best possible start this weekend. First-half goals from Mathias Normann and Teemu Pukki proved to be enough for Norwich to win at Brentford before the international break, but the promoted outfit are still bottom of the table, picking up just five points from their opening 11 matches, suffering eight defeats in the process. The Canaries have not been able to secure back-to-back seasons of top-flight football since 2012-13 and 2013-14, having dropped straight back into the Championship following their last two promotions, and Smith has a huge job on his hands to secure Premier League football for next term. Norwich have lost their last three matches against Southampton in all competitions but did beat the Saints 1-0 at Carrow Road during the 2015-16 Premier League campaign. Southampton, meanwhile, will enter this match off the back of a 1-0 win over Aston Villa on November 5, with Adam Armstrong's third-minute effort proving to be the difference between the two sides. Ralph Hasenhuttl's side have picked up 10 points from their last four Premier League games against Leeds United, Burnley, Watford and Aston Villa to rise into 13th spot in the table. The Saints are only actually three points behind sixth-placed Manchester United and will be determined to put another victory on the board ahead of a tough trip to Liverpool in their final game of November. Southampton ran out 3-0 winners over Norwich when the two teams last met at Carrow Road in June 2020, but they have only recorded one victory on their travels in the Premier League this term, which was the 1-0 success at Watford on October 30. The Saints, who finished 15th in the league last term, have also lost just two of their last 15 matches against the Canaries in all competitions, recording seven victories in the process.Norwich City Premier League form:
- L
- D
- D
- L
- L
- W
Southampton Premier League form:
- L
- L
- W
- D
- W
- W
Southampton form (all competitions):
- L
- W
- D
- L
- W
- W
Team News
Norwich will be without the services of Christoph Zimmermann and Sam Byram, but Ozan Kabak, Grant Hanley, Andrew Omobamidele and Todd Cantwell could all be involved. Billy Gilmour struggled for action under Farke but is expected to be given plenty of chances under Smith, with the on-loan Chelsea midfielder set to come into the starting XI on Saturday. Cantwell could also be brought back into the side after a spell out of favour, but Pukki and Milot Rashica are both likely to retain their spots in the team. As for Southampton, Jack Stephens is still out with a long-term knee injury, but the Saints are otherwise in excellent shape, with Nathan Redmond available after recovering from coronavirus. The club also did not suffer any injury concerns with their international players, meanwhile, so it would not be a surprise to see the same XI that featured against Watford last time out. Adam Armstrong is expected to join Che Adams in a front two, meaning that Armando Broja might have to accept a spot on the bench. Norwich City possible starting lineup: Krul; Aarons, Hanley, Gibson, Williams; Normann, Gilmour; Cantwell, Lees-Melou, Rashica; Pukki Southampton possible starting lineup: McCarthy; Livramento, Bednarek, Salisu, Walker-Peters; Elyounoussi, Romeu, Ward-Prowse, Redmond; A Armstrong, AdamsWe said: Norwich City 1-1 Southampton
Southampton will be eyeing their third Premier League victory in a row, but Norwich should be feeling a lot better about themselves following their first win of the campaign; Smith's arrival will also boost the Canaries, and we can see the two teams playing out a low-scoring draw here.Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norwich City win with a probability of 39.82%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 33.78% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Norwich City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (6.93%). The likeliest Southampton win was 0-1 (9.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Norwich City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Norwich City | Draw | Southampton |
| 39.82% | 26.4% | 33.78% |
| Both teams to score 52.57% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
