Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 53.54%. A draw had a probability of 23.29% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 23.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.79%) and 2-0 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.99%) , while for a Aston Villa win it was 0-1 (6.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.