Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 43.84%. A win for Cardiff City had a probability of 32.71% and a draw had a probability of 23.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-2 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.33%) and 0-2 (6.24%). The likeliest Cardiff City win was 2-1 (7.63%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.