National League North Gameweek 5
Aug 29, 2026 3.00pm
Penydarren Park

Merthyr Town vs Chorley - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Merthyr Town

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Aug 22, 2026 3.00pm
South Shields 1 - 1 Merthyr Town
Goals scored
6
Top scorer
Jacob Maddox

Chorley

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Aug 22, 2026 3.00pm
Chorley 2 - 1 Scarborough Ath
Goals scored
6
Top scorer
Mike Calveley

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Merthyr Town win with a probability of 45.24%. A win for Chorley has a probability of 29.63% and a draw has a probability of 25.13%.

The most likely scoreline for a Merthyr Town win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (8.09%) and 2-0 (6.87%). The likeliest Chorley win is 1-2 (7.39%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.26%).

Result

Merthyr Town 45.24%
Draw 25.13%
Chorley 29.63%

Both Teams to Score: 

58.24% (+0.06)

Goals

Over 1.5 79.44% (+0.01)
Under 1.5 20.56% (-0.02)
Over 2.5 57.31%
Under 2.5 42.69%
Over 3.5 34.16%
Under 3.5 65.84%
Over 4.5 20.44% (-0.02)
Under 4.5 79.56% (+0.02)

First Half Winner

Merthyr Town 37.28%
Draw 38.61%
Chorley 24.11%

Team To Score First

Merthyr Town 54.9%
No Goal 6.03% (-0.01)
Chorley 39.07% (+0.01)

Corners

Over 8 58.54%
Equal 8 11.39%
Under 8 30.07%
Over 9 46.87%
Equal 9 11.67%
Under 9 41.46%
Over 10.5 35.91%
Under 10.5 64.09%

Merthyr Town Goals

Over 1.5 47.59% (-0.01)
Under 1.5 52.41% (+0.01)
Over 2.5 22.65% (-0.02)
Under 2.5 77.35% (+0.01)
Over 3.5 9.02% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 90.98% (+0.02)

Chorley Goals

Over 0.5 66.11% (+0.02)
Under 0.5 33.89% (-0.01)
Over 1.5 34.45%
Under 1.5 65.55%
Over 2.5 13.51% (-0.02)
Under 2.5 86.49% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 4.15% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 95.85% (+0.01)

Score analysis

Merthyr Town 45.23%
Draw 25.13%
Chorley 29.64%
Merthyr Town
2-1 @ 9.33%
1-0 @ 8.09%
2-0 @ 6.87%
3-1 @ 4.63%
3-0 @ 4.11%
3-2 @ 3.41%
Other @ 8.79%
Total : 45.23%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.26% (+0.01)
2-2 @ 6.13% (+0.01)
0-0 @ 6.03% (-0.01)
3-3 @ 1.48%
Other @ 0.23% (-0.01)
Total : 25.13%
Chorley
1-2 @ 7.39%
0-1 @ 6.44%
0-2 @ 4.01% (+0.01)
1-3 @ 2.95%
2-3 @ 2.61% (-0.02)
0-3 @ 2.32%
Other @ 3.92%
Total : 29.64%

Head to Head

National League North Gameweek 31
Feb 7, 2026 3.10pm
2
3
HT : 2 2
FT Penydarren Park
  • Kiban Rai 11' goal
  • Tom Handley 25' goal
  • Alex John 46' yellowcard
  • Cawley Cox 71' yellowcard
  • Tate Hugh Xavier-Jones 79' yellowcard
  • Jayden Bourne 90'+1' yellowcard
  • goal Warren Clarke 32'
  • goal Anjola Popoola 38'
  • yellowcard Adam Henley 52'
  • yellowcard Thomas Carr 72'
  • goal Thomas Carr 90'+5'
National League North
Oct 25, 2025 3.00pm
0
2
HT : 0 0
FT