National League North Gameweek 3
Aug 18, 2026 7.45pm
Penydarren Park

Merthyr Town vs AFC Telford United - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Merthyr Town

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Aug 15, 2026 3.00pm
Spennymoor 2 - 1 Merthyr Town

AFC Telford United

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Aug 15, 2026 3.00pm
Worksop 2 - 1 Telford

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Merthyr Town win with a probability of 44.78%. A win for AFC Telford United has a probability of 31.74% and a draw has a probability of 23.48%.

The most likely scoreline for a Merthyr Town win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (6.48%) and 2-0 (5.69%). The likeliest AFC Telford United win is 1-2 (7.45%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (9.96%).

Result

Merthyr Town 44.78% (+0.64)
Draw 23.48% (-0.43)
AFC Telford United 31.74% (-0.16)

Both Teams to Score: 

64.88% (+0.01)

Goals

Over 1.5 83.75% (+0.32)
Under 1.5 16.25% (-0.33)
Over 2.5 64.37% (+0.57)
Under 2.5 35.63% (-0.56)
Over 3.5 40.99% (-0.40)
Under 3.5 59.01% (+0.40)
Over 4.5 26.08% (-0.40)
Under 4.5 73.92% (+0.40)

First Half Winner

Merthyr Town 37.68% (+1.07)
Draw 36.51% (+0.56)
AFC Telford United 25.82% (-1.61)

Team To Score First

Merthyr Town 51.95% (+0.31)
No Goal 4.51% (-0.24)
AFC Telford United 43.54% (-0.08)

Corners

Over 8 62.04% (-4.98)
Equal 8 10.59% (-0.05)
Under 8 27.37% (+5.02)
Over 9 50.89% (-4.43)
Equal 9 11.15% (-0.55)
Under 9 37.96% (+4.99)
Over 10.5 40.07% (-3.54)
Under 10.5 59.93% (+3.54)

Merthyr Town Goals

Over 1.5 50.37% (+0.34)
Under 1.5 49.63% (-0.34)
Over 2.5 25.42% (-0.03)
Under 2.5 74.58% (+0.04)
Over 3.5 10.32% (-0.42)
Under 3.5 89.68% (+0.43)

AFC Telford United Goals

Over 0.5 69.45% (+0.16)
Under 0.5 30.55% (-0.15)
Over 1.5 39.8% (-0.06)
Under 1.5 60.2% (+0.06)
Over 2.5 17.67% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 82.33% (+0.04)
Over 3.5 6.54% (-0.09)
Under 3.5 93.46% (+0.08)

Score analysis

Merthyr Town 44.79%
Draw 23.48%
AFC Telford United 31.74%
Merthyr Town
2-1 @ 9.57% (+0.40)
1-0 @ 6.48% (+0.11)
2-0 @ 5.69% (+0.07)
3-1 @ 4.85%
3-2 @ 4.32% (+0.12)
3-0 @ 3.82% (+0.32)
Other @ 10.06% (-0.33)
Total : 44.79%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.96% (-0.07)
2-2 @ 6.64% (-0.02)
0-0 @ 4.51% (-0.24)
3-3 @ 2.11% (-0.04)
Other @ 0.26% (-0.10)
Total : 23.48%
AFC Telford United
1-2 @ 7.45% (+0.15)
0-1 @ 5.27% (-0.13)
0-2 @ 3.72% (-0.25)
1-3 @ 3.43% (+0.02)
2-3 @ 3.05% (-0.08)
0-3 @ 2.54% (+0.13)
Other @ 6.28% (+0.03)
Total : 31.74%

Head to Head

National League North
Jan 27, 2026 7.45pm
1
4
HT : 0 3
FT Penydarren Park
  • Cawley Cox 46' yellowcard
  • Alex John 46' yellowcard
  • Cole Jarvis 73' goal
  • Cole Lewis Jarvis 74' goal
  • Jayden Bourne 90'+2' yellowcard
  • Charlie Caswell 90'+2' yellowcard
  • goal Dylan Allen-Hadley 19'
  • goal Ammar Dyer 45'+5'
  • goal Dylan Allen-Hadley 45'+6'
  • goal Remi Walker 55'
  • yellowcard Charlie Williams 67'
  • goal Dylan Allen-Hadley 77'
  • yellowcard Ricardo Dinanga 79'
  • yellowcard Ola Lawal 79'
  • yellowcard Jahdahn Fridye-Harper 83'
  • yellowcard Rhys Hilton 83'
National League North
Nov 4, 2025 7.45pm
2
4
HT : 0 0
FT