National League North Gameweek 1
Aug 8, 2026 3.00pm
Penydarren Park

Merthyr Town vs Hednesford Town - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Merthyr Town

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Apr 25, 2026 12.30pm
Merthyr Town 2 - 4 Fylde

Hednesford Town

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Merthyr Town win with a probability of 52.43%. A win for Hednesford Town has a probability of 25.1% and a draw has a probability of 22.47%.

The most likely scoreline for a Merthyr Town win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (6.96%) and 2-0 (6.78%). The likeliest Hednesford Town win is 1-2 (6.2%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (9.32%).

Result

Merthyr Town 52.43% (-0.07)
Draw 22.47% (-0.02)
Hednesford Town 25.1% (+0.08)

Both Teams to Score: 

61.53% (+0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 83.53% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 16.47% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 64.26% (+0.02)
Under 2.5 35.74% (-0.01)
Over 3.5 42.23% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 57.77% (-0.01)
Over 4.5 27.71% (+0.02)
Under 4.5 72.29% (-0.01)

First Half Winner

Merthyr Town 40.32%
Draw 36.58% (-0.02)
Hednesford Town 23.1% (+0.02)

Team To Score First

Merthyr Town 57.58%
No Goal 4.85%
Hednesford Town 37.57%

Corners

Over 8 58.92% (-0.29)
Equal 8 11.9% (+0.01)
Under 8 29.19% (+0.29)
Over 9 46.66% (-0.27)
Equal 9 12.26% (-0.02)
Under 9 41.08% (+0.29)
Over 10.5 35.16% (-0.23)
Under 10.5 64.84% (+0.22)

Merthyr Town Goals

Over 1.5 56.33% (-0.06)
Under 1.5 43.67% (+0.06)
Over 2.5 31.56% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 68.44% (+0.04)
Over 3.5 14.89%
Under 3.5 85.11%

Hednesford Town Goals

Over 0.5 61.91% (+0.01)
Under 0.5 38.09% (-0.01)
Over 1.5 32.77% (+0.04)
Under 1.5 67.23% (-0.04)
Over 2.5 13.34% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 86.66% (-0.05)
Over 3.5 4.54% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 95.46% (-0.02)

Score analysis

Merthyr Town 52.42%
Draw 22.47%
Hednesford Town 25.09%
Merthyr Town
2-1 @ 9.39% (-0.01)
1-0 @ 6.96% (-0.01)
2-0 @ 6.78% (-0.01)
3-1 @ 5.79% (-0.01)
3-0 @ 4.88% (-0.01)
3-2 @ 4.02% (-0.02)
Other @ 14.6%
Total : 52.42%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.32% (-0.01)
2-2 @ 6.03% (-0.01)
0-0 @ 4.85%
3-3 @ 1.98%
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 22.47%
Hednesford Town
1-2 @ 6.2%
0-1 @ 4.64% (+0.01)
0-2 @ 3.18% (+0.02)
1-3 @ 2.7% (+0.02)
2-3 @ 2.57% (+0.01)
0-3 @ 1.55% (+0.02)
Other @ 4.25% (+0.01)
Total : 25.09%