National League North
Aug 8, 2026 3.00pm
2
0
HT : 2 0
FT Penydarren Park
  • Jacob Maddox 3' goal
  • Jacob Maddox 45' goal

Merthyr Town vs Hednesford Town - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Merthyr Town

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Apr 25, 2026 12.30pm
Merthyr Town 2 - 4 Fylde

Hednesford Town

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Merthyr Town win with a probability of 52.43%. A win for Hednesford Town had a probability of 25.1% and a draw had a probability of 22.47%.

The most likely scoreline for a Merthyr Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.96%) and 2-0 (6.78%). The likeliest Hednesford Town win was 1-2 (6.2%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.

Result

Merthyr Town 52.43% (-0.07)
Draw 22.47% (-0.02)
Hednesford Town 25.1% (+0.08)

Both Teams to Score: 

61.53% (+0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 83.53% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 16.47% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 64.26% (+0.02)
Under 2.5 35.74% (-0.01)
Over 3.5 42.23% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 57.77% (-0.01)
Over 4.5 27.71% (+0.02)
Under 4.5 72.29% (-0.01)

First Half Winner

Merthyr Town 40.32%
Draw 36.58% (-0.02)
Hednesford Town 23.1% (+0.02)

Team To Score First

Merthyr Town 57.58%
No Goal 4.85%
Hednesford Town 37.57%

Corners

Over 8 58.92% (-0.29)
Equal 8 11.9% (+0.01)
Under 8 29.19% (+0.29)
Over 9 46.66% (-0.27)
Equal 9 12.26% (-0.02)
Under 9 41.08% (+0.29)
Over 10.5 35.16% (-0.23)
Under 10.5 64.84% (+0.22)

Merthyr Town Goals

Over 1.5 56.33% (-0.06)
Under 1.5 43.67% (+0.06)
Over 2.5 31.56% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 68.44% (+0.04)
Over 3.5 14.89%
Under 3.5 85.11%

Hednesford Town Goals

Over 0.5 61.91% (+0.01)
Under 0.5 38.09% (-0.01)
Over 1.5 32.77% (+0.04)
Under 1.5 67.23% (-0.04)
Over 2.5 13.34% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 86.66% (-0.05)
Over 3.5 4.54% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 95.46% (-0.02)

Score analysis

Merthyr Town 52.42%
Draw 22.47%
Hednesford Town 25.09%
Merthyr Town
2-1 @ 9.39% (-0.01)
1-0 @ 6.96% (-0.01)
2-0 @ 6.78% (-0.01)
3-1 @ 5.79% (-0.01)
3-0 @ 4.88% (-0.01)
3-2 @ 4.02% (-0.02)
Other @ 14.6%
Total : 52.42%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.32% (-0.01)
2-2 @ 6.03% (-0.01)
0-0 @ 4.85%
3-3 @ 1.98%
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 22.47%
Hednesford Town
1-2 @ 6.2%
0-1 @ 4.64% (+0.01)
0-2 @ 3.18% (+0.02)
1-3 @ 2.7% (+0.02)
2-3 @ 2.57% (+0.01)
0-3 @ 1.55% (+0.02)
Other @ 4.25% (+0.01)
Total : 25.09%