Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marine AFC win with a probability of 44.91%. A win for Merthyr Town had a probability of 32.01% and a draw had a probability of 23.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marine AFC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.69%) and 2-0 (5.64%). The likeliest Merthyr Town win was 1-2 (7.47%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.