National League North Gameweek 41
Apr 14, 2026 7.45pm
The Marine Travel Arena

Marine AFC vs Merthyr Town - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Marine AFC

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Apr 8, 2026 7.45pm
Marine AFC 0 - 1 Hereford
Goals scored
53
Top scorer
Charlie Jolley

Merthyr Town

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Apr 6, 2026 3.00pm
Hereford 3 - 0 Merthyr Town
Goals scored
83
Top scorer
Lewys Twamley

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Marine AFC win with a probability of 44.9%. A win for Merthyr Town has a probability of 31.97% and a draw has a probability of 23.14%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marine AFC win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (6.68%) and 2-0 (5.63%). The likeliest Merthyr Town win is 1-2 (7.48%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (9.85%).

Result

Marine AFC 44.9% (+0.20)
Draw 23.14% (+0.08)
Merthyr Town 31.97% (-0.22)

Both Teams to Score: 

62.52% (-0.20)

Goals

Over 1.5 83.9% (-0.06)
Under 1.5 16.1% (+0.07)
Over 2.5 64.48% (-0.19)
Under 2.5 35.52% (+0.21)
Over 3.5 41.76% (-0.15)
Under 3.5 58.24% (+0.15)
Over 4.5 25.9% (-0.11)
Under 4.5 74.1% (+0.10)

First Half Winner

Marine AFC 35.19% (+0.31)
Draw 38.5% (-0.07)
Merthyr Town 26.31% (-0.27)

Team To Score First

Marine AFC 51.22% (+0.25)
No Goal 4.01% (+0.03)
Merthyr Town 44.77% (-0.28)

Corners

Over 8 62.21% (-0.25)
Equal 8 10.78% (+0.04)
Under 8 27.02% (+0.22)
Over 9 50.85% (-0.26)
Equal 9 11.36% (+0.01)
Under 9 37.79% (+0.25)
Over 10.5 39.84% (-0.25)
Under 10.5 60.16% (+0.25)

Marine AFC Goals

Over 1.5 50.91% (+0.09)
Under 1.5 49.09% (-0.09)
Over 2.5 25.74% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 74.26% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 11.13% (+0.02)
Under 3.5 88.87% (-0.01)

Merthyr Town Goals

Over 0.5 69.46% (-0.14)
Under 0.5 30.54% (+0.13)
Over 1.5 39.45% (-0.25)
Under 1.5 60.55% (+0.25)
Over 2.5 17.64% (-0.15)
Under 2.5 82.36% (+0.16)
Over 3.5 6.29% (-0.09)
Under 3.5 93.71% (+0.09)

Score analysis

Marine AFC 44.9%
Draw 23.13%
Merthyr Town 31.97%
Marine AFC
2-1 @ 9.35% (+0.02)
1-0 @ 6.68% (+0.07)
2-0 @ 5.63% (+0.08)
3-1 @ 5.4% (+0.04)
3-0 @ 3.62% (+0.02)
3-2 @ 3.62% (-0.01)
Other @ 10.6%
Total : 44.9%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.85% (+0.07)
2-2 @ 6.77% (-0.05)
0-0 @ 4.01% (+0.03)
3-3 @ 1.97%
Other @ 0.53% (+0.02)
Total : 23.13%
Merthyr Town
1-2 @ 7.48% (-0.05)
0-1 @ 5.41% (+0.01)
0-2 @ 3.94%
1-3 @ 3.7% (-0.03)
2-3 @ 3.42%
0-3 @ 2.26% (-0.05)
Other @ 5.76% (-0.11)
Total : 31.97%

Head to Head

National League North
Aug 19, 2025 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 0 0
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