National League North Gameweek 41
Apr 14, 2026 7.45pm
1
3
HT : 0 1
FT The Marine Travel Arena
  • Sam Fielding 84' goal
  • goal Jacob Maddox 9'
  • goal Jacob Maddox 67'
  • goal Jac Thomas 78'

Marine AFC vs Merthyr Town - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Marine AFC

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Apr 11, 2026 3.00pm
Darlington 2 - 3 Marine AFC
Goals scored
59
Top scorer
Charlie Jolley

Merthyr Town

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Apr 11, 2026 3.00pm
Merthyr Town 1 - 2 Macclesfield
Goals scored
88
Top scorer
Lewys Twamley

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marine AFC win with a probability of 44.91%. A win for Merthyr Town had a probability of 32.01% and a draw had a probability of 23.13%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marine AFC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.69%) and 2-0 (5.64%). The likeliest Merthyr Town win was 1-2 (7.47%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.

Result

Marine AFC 44.91% (+0.01)
Draw 23.13% (-0.02)
Merthyr Town 32.01% (+0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

62.52%

Goals

Over 1.5 83.93% (+0.04)
Under 1.5 16.07% (-0.04)
Over 2.5 64.48%
Under 2.5 35.52%
Over 3.5 41.81% (+0.06)
Under 3.5 58.19% (-0.06)
Over 4.5 25.93% (+0.04)
Under 4.5 74.07% (-0.04)

First Half Winner

Marine AFC 35.19%
Draw 38.5%
Merthyr Town 26.31%

Team To Score First

Marine AFC 51.22%
No Goal 4.01%
Merthyr Town 44.77%

Corners

Over 8 62.14% (-0.08)
Equal 8 10.77% (-0.01)
Under 8 27.08% (+0.06)
Over 9 50.79% (-0.07)
Equal 9 11.36%
Under 9 37.86% (+0.08)
Over 10.5 39.79% (-0.06)
Under 10.5 60.21% (+0.06)

Marine AFC Goals

Over 1.5 50.92% (+0.02)
Under 1.5 49.08% (-0.02)
Over 2.5 25.74%
Under 2.5 74.26%
Over 3.5 11.13%
Under 3.5 88.87%

Merthyr Town Goals

Over 0.5 69.51% (+0.06)
Under 0.5 30.49% (-0.06)
Over 1.5 39.49% (+0.04)
Under 1.5 60.51% (-0.04)
Over 2.5 17.67% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 82.33% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 6.3% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 93.7% (-0.01)

Score analysis

Marine AFC 44.91%
Draw 23.13%
Merthyr Town 32.02%
Marine AFC
2-1 @ 9.34% (-0.01)
1-0 @ 6.69% (+0.02)
2-0 @ 5.64% (+0.01)
3-1 @ 5.4%
3-2 @ 3.63% (+0.01)
3-0 @ 3.61% (-0.02)
Other @ 10.6%
Total : 44.91%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.85%
2-2 @ 6.77%
0-0 @ 4.01%
3-3 @ 1.97%
Other @ 0.53%
Total : 23.13%
Merthyr Town
1-2 @ 7.47% (-0.02)
0-1 @ 5.43% (+0.02)
0-2 @ 3.95% (+0.02)
1-3 @ 3.72% (+0.03)
2-3 @ 3.43% (+0.02)
0-3 @ 2.25% (-0.01)
Other @ 5.77% (+0.01)
Total : 32.02%

Head to Head

National League North
Aug 19, 2025 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 0 0
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