Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Merthyr Town win with a probability of 48.97%. A win for Chester FC had a probability of 28.8% and a draw had a probability of 22.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Merthyr Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.83%) and 2-0 (6.34%). The likeliest Chester FC win was 1-2 (7.07%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.