National League North Gameweek 38
Mar 10, 2026 7.45pm
Penydarren Park

Merthyr Town vs Chester FC - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Merthyr Town

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Feb 28, 2026 3.00pm
Merthyr Town 1 - 3 Buxton
Goals scored
75
Top scorer
Lewys Twamley

Chester FC

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Feb 28, 2026 3.00pm
Chester 2 - 1 Spennymoor
Goals scored
52
Top scorer
Finley Shrimpton

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Merthyr Town win with a probability of 48.65%. A win for Chester FC has a probability of 29.08% and a draw has a probability of 22.27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Merthyr Town win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (6.78%) and 2-0 (6.26%). The likeliest Chester FC win is 1-2 (7.05%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (9.56%).

Result

Merthyr Town 48.65%
Draw 22.27%
Chester FC 29.08%

Both Teams to Score: 

63.24%

Goals

Over 1.5 84.31%
Under 1.5 15.69%
Over 2.5 64.97%
Under 2.5 35.03%
Over 3.5 42.58%
Under 3.5 57.42%
Over 4.5 26.87%
Under 4.5 73.13%

First Half Winner

Merthyr Town 38.28%
Draw 36.43%
Chester FC 25.29%

Team To Score First

Merthyr Town 55.96%
No Goal 3.83%
Chester FC 40.21%

Corners

Over 8 62.89%
Equal 8 10.37%
Under 8 26.74%
Over 9 51.9%
Equal 9 10.99%
Under 9 37.11%
Over 10.5 41.16%
Under 10.5 58.84%

Merthyr Town Goals

Over 1.5 53.84%
Under 1.5 46.16%
Over 2.5 28.5%
Under 2.5 71.5%
Over 3.5 12.48%
Under 3.5 87.52%

Chester FC Goals

Over 0.5 66.87%
Under 0.5 33.13%
Over 1.5 36.96%
Under 1.5 63.04%
Over 2.5 15.74%
Under 2.5 84.26%
Over 3.5 5.55%
Under 3.5 94.45%

Score analysis

Merthyr Town 48.64%
Draw 22.28%
Chester FC 29.09%
Merthyr Town
2-1 @ 9.4%
1-0 @ 6.78%
2-0 @ 6.26%
3-1 @ 5.86%
3-0 @ 4.1%
3-2 @ 4.07%
Other @ 12.17%
Total : 48.64%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.56%
2-2 @ 6.59%
0-0 @ 3.83%
3-3 @ 1.99%
Other @ 0.31%
Total : 22.28%
Chester FC
1-2 @ 7.05%
0-1 @ 5.09%
0-2 @ 3.51%
1-3 @ 3.27%
2-3 @ 3.09%
0-3 @ 1.84%
Other @ 5.24%
Total : 29.09%

Head to Head

National League North
Oct 4, 2025 3.00pm
2
2
HT : 0 0
FT