National League North Gameweek 38
Mar 10, 2026 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 1 1
FT Penydarren Park
  • Matthew Harris 11' goal
  • goal Finley Shrimpton 5'
  • goal Dylan Mottley-Henry 90'+7'

Merthyr Town vs Chester FC - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Merthyr Town

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Mar 7, 2026 3.00pm
Radcliffe 1 - 3 Merthyr Town
Goals scored
82
Top scorer
Lewys Twamley

Chester FC

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Mar 7, 2026 3.00pm
Chester 2 - 1 Darlington
Goals scored
58
Top scorer
Finley Shrimpton

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Merthyr Town win with a probability of 48.97%. A win for Chester FC had a probability of 28.8% and a draw had a probability of 22.27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Merthyr Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.83%) and 2-0 (6.34%). The likeliest Chester FC win was 1-2 (7.07%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.

Result

Merthyr Town 48.97%
Draw 22.27%
Chester FC 28.8%

Both Teams to Score: 

63.04%

Goals

Over 1.5 84.26%
Under 1.5 15.74%
Over 2.5 64.86%
Under 2.5 35.14%
Over 3.5 42.2%
Under 3.5 57.8%
Over 4.5 26.57%
Under 4.5 73.43%

First Half Winner

Merthyr Town 38.3%
Draw 36.44%
Chester FC 25.26%

Team To Score First

Merthyr Town 56.14%
No Goal 3.86%
Chester FC 40%

Corners

Over 8 63.34%
Equal 8 10.53%
Under 8 26.12%
Over 9 52.14%
Equal 9 11.21%
Under 9 36.66%
Over 10.5 41.17%
Under 10.5 58.83%

Merthyr Town Goals

Over 1.5 53.96%
Under 1.5 46.04%
Over 2.5 28.57%
Under 2.5 71.43%
Over 3.5 12.47%
Under 3.5 87.53%

Chester FC Goals

Over 0.5 66.6%
Under 0.5 33.4%
Over 1.5 36.54%
Under 1.5 63.46%
Over 2.5 15.43%
Under 2.5 84.57%
Over 3.5 5.38%
Under 3.5 94.62%

Score analysis

Merthyr Town 48.97%
Draw 22.27%
Chester FC 28.8%
Merthyr Town
2-1 @ 9.48%
1-0 @ 6.83%
2-0 @ 6.34%
3-1 @ 5.88%
3-0 @ 4.23%
3-2 @ 4.03%
Other @ 12.18%
Total : 48.97%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.61%
2-2 @ 6.55%
0-0 @ 3.86%
3-3 @ 1.96%
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 22.27%
Chester FC
1-2 @ 7.07%
0-1 @ 5.09%
0-2 @ 3.46%
1-3 @ 3.19%
2-3 @ 3.02%
0-3 @ 1.88%
Other @ 5.09%
Total : 28.8%

Head to Head

National League North
Oct 4, 2025 3.00pm
2
2
HT : 0 0
FT