National League North Gameweek 36
Feb 28, 2026 3.00pm
1
3
HT : 1 1
FT Penydarren Park
  • Lee Lucas 6' goal
  • goal Johnny Johnston 13'
  • goal Will Flint 65'
  • goal Zak Gilsenan 75'

Merthyr Town vs Buxton - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Merthyr Town

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Feb 24, 2026 7.45pm
Leamington 1 - 2 Merthyr Town
Goals scored
81
Top scorer
Lewys Twamley

Buxton

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Feb 24, 2026 7.45pm
Buxton 1 - 2 King's Lynn
Goals scored
60
Top scorer
Cian Coleman

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Merthyr Town win with a probability of 51.81%. A win for Buxton had a probability of 26.08% and a draw had a probability of 22.06%.

The most likely scoreline for a Merthyr Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.84%) and 2-0 (6.47%). The likeliest Buxton win was 1-2 (6.2%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.

Result

Merthyr Town 51.81%
Draw 22.06%
Buxton 26.08%

Both Teams to Score: 

62.56% (-0.01)

Goals

Over 1.5 84.58%
Under 1.5 15.42%
Over 2.5 65.62% (+0.02)
Under 2.5 34.38% (-0.01)
Over 3.5 44.58%
Under 3.5 55.42%
Over 4.5 28.84% (-0.02)
Under 4.5 71.16% (+0.01)

First Half Winner

Merthyr Town 38.99% (+0.03)
Draw 37.3% (+0.02)
Buxton 23.71% (-0.03)

Team To Score First

Merthyr Town 56.51% (-0.04)
No Goal 3.91%
Buxton 39.58% (+0.04)

Corners

Over 8 68.28% (+0.02)
Equal 8 9.94%
Under 8 21.78% (-0.02)
Over 9 57.26% (+0.02)
Equal 9 11.02%
Under 9 31.72% (-0.02)
Over 10.5 46.06% (+0.03)
Under 10.5 53.94% (-0.03)

Merthyr Town Goals

Over 1.5 56.74%
Under 1.5 43.26%
Over 2.5 31.86%
Under 2.5 68.14%
Over 3.5 14.89% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 85.11% (-0.02)

Buxton Goals

Over 0.5 63.66% (-0.03)
Under 0.5 36.34% (+0.03)
Over 1.5 34.67% (-0.01)
Under 1.5 65.33% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 14.49%
Under 2.5 85.51%
Over 3.5 4.76% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 95.24% (+0.01)

Score analysis

Merthyr Town 51.8%
Draw 22.06%
Buxton 26.09%
Merthyr Town
2-1 @ 9.04%
1-0 @ 6.84%
2-0 @ 6.47%
3-1 @ 6.01% (-0.01)
3-0 @ 4.45% (+0.01)
3-2 @ 4.37% (-0.01)
Other @ 14.62% (+0.01)
Total : 51.8%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.32%
2-2 @ 6.42%
0-0 @ 3.91%
3-3 @ 2.14%
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 22.06%
Buxton
1-2 @ 6.2%
0-1 @ 4.62%
1-3 @ 3.29%
0-2 @ 3.19%
2-3 @ 2.95%
0-3 @ 1.35% (+0.02)
Other @ 4.49% (-0.01)
Total : 26.09%

Head to Head

National League North
Nov 29, 2025 3.00pm
1
2
HT : 0 2
FT
  • Kieran Burton 17' redcard
  • Tate Campbell 88' goal
  • goal Cole Lewis Jarvis 29'
  • goal Lewys Twamley 35'
FA Cup
Nov 5, 2022 3.00pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT The Silverlands
  • Diego De Girolamo 5' goal
  • Jason Gilchrist 88' goal