National League North Gameweek 36
Feb 28, 2026 3.00pm
Penydarren Park

Merthyr Town vs Buxton - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Merthyr Town

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Feb 24, 2026 7.45pm
Leamington 1 - 2 Merthyr Town
Goals scored
74
Top scorer
Lewys Twamley

Buxton

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Feb 24, 2026 7.45pm
Buxton 1 - 2 King's Lynn
Goals scored
51
Top scorer
Tai Sodje

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Merthyr Town win with a probability of 51.81%. A win for Buxton has a probability of 26.08% and a draw has a probability of 22.06%.

The most likely scoreline for a Merthyr Town win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (6.84%) and 2-0 (6.47%). The likeliest Buxton win is 1-2 (6.2%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (9.32%).

Result

Merthyr Town 51.81% (+0.60)
Draw 22.06% (-0.37)
Buxton 26.08% (-0.29)

Both Teams to Score: 

62.57% (+1.03)

Goals

Over 1.5 84.58% (+0.94)
Under 1.5 15.42% (-0.94)
Over 2.5 65.61% (+1.79)
Under 2.5 34.39% (-1.79)
Over 3.5 44.58% (+1.90)
Under 3.5 55.42% (-1.90)
Over 4.5 28.85% (+1.59)
Under 4.5 71.15% (-1.59)

First Half Winner

Merthyr Town 38.97% (+0.25)
Draw 37.28% (-0.33)
Buxton 23.74% (+0.07)

Team To Score First

Merthyr Town 56.55% (+0.54)
No Goal 3.91% (-0.29)
Buxton 39.54% (-0.26)

Corners

Over 8 68.26% (+1.43)
Equal 8 9.94% (-0.33)
Under 8 21.8% (-1.10)
Over 9 57.24% (+1.67)
Equal 9 11.02% (-0.24)
Under 9 31.74% (-1.42)
Over 10.5 46.04% (+1.76)
Under 10.5 53.96% (-1.76)

Merthyr Town Goals

Over 1.5 56.74% (+1.42)
Under 1.5 43.26% (-1.42)
Over 2.5 31.86% (+1.51)
Under 2.5 68.14% (-1.52)
Over 3.5 14.88% (+0.92)
Under 3.5 85.12% (-0.93)

Buxton Goals

Over 0.5 63.68% (+0.07)
Under 0.5 36.32% (-0.07)
Over 1.5 34.68% (+0.51)
Under 1.5 65.32% (-0.52)
Over 2.5 14.49% (+0.51)
Under 2.5 85.51% (-0.51)
Over 3.5 4.77% (+0.23)
Under 3.5 95.23% (-0.23)

Score analysis

Merthyr Town 51.8%
Draw 22.06%
Buxton 26.09%
Merthyr Town
2-1 @ 9.04% (-0.03)
1-0 @ 6.84% (-0.43)
2-0 @ 6.47% (-0.27)
3-1 @ 6.02% (+0.23)
3-0 @ 4.44% (-0.02)
3-2 @ 4.38% (+0.21)
Other @ 14.61% (+0.87)
Total : 51.8%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.32% (-0.37)
2-2 @ 6.42% (+0.08)
0-0 @ 3.91% (-0.29)
3-3 @ 2.14% (+0.18)
Other @ 0.27% (+0.06)
Total : 22.06%
Buxton
1-2 @ 6.2% (-0.09)
0-1 @ 4.62% (-0.30)
1-3 @ 3.29% (-0.01)
0-2 @ 3.19% (-0.19)
2-3 @ 2.95% (+0.12)
0-3 @ 1.34% (+0.02)
Other @ 4.5% (+0.18)
Total : 26.09%

Head to Head

National League North
Nov 29, 2025 3.00pm
1
2
HT : 0 2
FT
  • Kieran Burton 17' redcard
  • Tate Campbell 88' goal
  • goal Cole Lewis Jarvis 29'
  • goal Lewys Twamley 35'
FA Cup
Nov 5, 2022 3.00pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT The Silverlands
  • Diego De Girolamo 5' goal
  • Jason Gilchrist 88' goal