Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Merthyr Town win with a probability of 51.81%. A win for Buxton had a probability of 26.08% and a draw had a probability of 22.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Merthyr Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.84%) and 2-0 (6.47%). The likeliest Buxton win was 1-2 (6.2%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.