Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Merthyr Town win with a probability of 44.18%. A win for Leamington FC had a probability of 31.3% and a draw had a probability of 24.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Merthyr Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.07%) and 0-2 (6.12%). The likeliest Leamington FC win was 1-0 (7.2%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.