National League North Gameweek 29
Jan 27, 2026 7.45pm
Penydarren Park

Merthyr Town vs AFC Telford United - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Merthyr Town

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Jan 24, 2026 3.00pm
Southport 0 - 0 Merthyr Town
Goals scored
56
Top scorer
Ricardo Rees

AFC Telford United

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Jan 24, 2026 3.00pm
Telford 0 - 0 King's Lynn
Goals scored
41
Top scorer
Matt Stenson

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Merthyr Town win with a probability of 48.13%. A win for AFC Telford United has a probability of 29.3% and a draw has a probability of 22.57%.

The most likely scoreline for a Merthyr Town win is 2-1 with a probability of 8.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (6.44%) and 1-0 (6.2%). The likeliest AFC Telford United win is 1-2 (6.56%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (9.21%).

Result

Merthyr Town 48.13% (-0.27)
Draw 22.57% (+0.06)
AFC Telford United 29.3% (+0.23)

Both Teams to Score: 

66.58% (+0.52)

Goals

Over 1.5 84.86% (+0.29)
Under 1.5 15.14% (-0.28)
Over 2.5 65.72% (+0.49)
Under 2.5 34.28% (-0.50)
Over 3.5 45.07% (-0.43)
Under 3.5 54.93% (+0.43)
Over 4.5 28.24% (-0.20)
Under 4.5 71.76% (+0.20)

First Half Winner

Merthyr Town 43.1% (+0.01)
Draw 33.18% (+0.11)
AFC Telford United 23.73% (-0.11)

Team To Score First

Merthyr Town 56.01% (+0.15)
No Goal 3.75%
AFC Telford United 40.24% (-0.15)

Corners

Over 8 70.96% (-0.11)
Equal 8 9.56% (+0.04)
Under 8 19.48% (+0.09)
Over 9 60.1% (-0.13)
Equal 9 10.86% (+0.02)
Under 9 29.04% (+0.11)
Over 10.5 48.82% (-0.15)
Under 10.5 51.18% (+0.15)

Merthyr Town Goals

Over 1.5 55.03% (-0.11)
Under 1.5 44.97% (+0.11)
Over 2.5 29.38% (-0.15)
Under 2.5 70.62% (+0.15)
Over 3.5 13.15% (-0.09)
Under 3.5 86.85% (+0.09)

AFC Telford United Goals

Over 0.5 66.7% (+0.16)
Under 0.5 33.3% (-0.16)
Over 1.5 37.96% (+0.33)
Under 1.5 62.04% (-0.33)
Over 2.5 16.55% (+0.11)
Under 2.5 83.45% (-0.10)
Over 3.5 5.44% (+0.04)
Under 3.5 94.56% (-0.04)

Score analysis

Merthyr Town 48.13%
Draw 22.57%
AFC Telford United 29.29%
Merthyr Town
2-1 @ 8.61% (+0.17)
2-0 @ 6.44% (-0.13)
1-0 @ 6.2% (-0.17)
3-1 @ 5.74% (-0.21)
3-2 @ 4.24% (-0.09)
3-0 @ 4.04% (+0.21)
Other @ 12.86% (-0.07)
Total : 48.13%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.21% (-0.04)
2-2 @ 7.11% (+0.11)
0-0 @ 3.75%
3-3 @ 2.21% (+0.03)
Other @ 0.29% (-0.04)
Total : 22.57%
AFC Telford United
1-2 @ 6.56% (+0.25)
0-1 @ 5.18% (-0.12)
1-3 @ 3.97% (-0.15)
0-2 @ 3.5% (-0.03)
2-3 @ 3.49% (-0.10)
0-3 @ 1.44% (+0.30)
Other @ 5.15% (+0.07)
Total : 29.29%

Head to Head

National League North
Nov 4, 2025 7.45pm
2
4
HT : 0 0
FT