National League North
Jan 27, 2026 7.45pm
1
4
HT : 0 3
FT Penydarren Park
  • Cawley Cox 46' yellowcard
  • Alex John 46' yellowcard
  • Cole Jarvis 73' goal
  • Cole Lewis Jarvis 74' goal
  • Jayden Bourne 90'+2' yellowcard
  • Charlie Caswell 90'+2' yellowcard
  • goal Dylan Allen-Hadley 19'
  • goal Ammar Dyer 45'+5'
  • goal Dylan Allen-Hadley 45'+6'
  • goal Remi Walker 55'
  • yellowcard Charlie Williams 67'
  • goal Dylan Allen-Hadley 77'
  • yellowcard Ricardo Dinanga 79'
  • yellowcard Ola Lawal 79'
  • yellowcard Jahdahn Fridye-Harper 83'
  • yellowcard Rhys Hilton 83'

Merthyr Town vs AFC Telford United - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Merthyr Town

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Jan 24, 2026 3.00pm
Southport 1 - 0 Merthyr Town
Goals scored
82
Top scorer
Lewys Twamley

AFC Telford United

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Jan 24, 2026 3.00pm
Telford 2 - 1 King's Lynn
Goals scored
77
Top scorer
Dylan Allen-Hadley

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Merthyr Town win with a probability of 48.13%. A win for AFC Telford United had a probability of 29.3% and a draw had a probability of 22.57%.

The most likely scoreline for a Merthyr Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.44%) and 1-0 (6.2%). The likeliest AFC Telford United win was 1-2 (6.56%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.21%).

Result

Merthyr Town 48.13% ▼ (-0.27)
Draw 22.57% ▲ (+0.06)
AFC Telford United 29.3% ▲ (+0.23)

Both Teams to Score: 

66.58% ▲ (+0.52)

Goals

Over 1.5 84.86% ▲ (+0.29)
Under 1.5 15.14% ▼ (-0.28)
Over 2.5 65.72% ▲ (+0.49)
Under 2.5 34.28% ▼ (-0.50)
Over 3.5 45.07% ▼ (-0.43)
Under 3.5 54.93% ▲ (+0.43)
Over 4.5 28.24% ▼ (-0.20)
Under 4.5 71.76% ▲ (+0.20)

First Half Winner

Merthyr Town 43.1% ▲ (+0.01)
Draw 33.18% ▲ (+0.11)
AFC Telford United 23.73% ▼ (-0.11)

Team To Score First

Merthyr Town 56.01% ▲ (+0.15)
No Goal 3.75%
AFC Telford United 40.24% ▼ (-0.15)

Corners

Over 8 70.96% ▼ (-0.11)
Equal 8 9.56% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 8 19.48% ▲ (+0.09)
Over 9 60.1% ▼ (-0.13)
Equal 9 10.86% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 9 29.04% ▲ (+0.11)
Over 10.5 48.82% ▼ (-0.15)
Under 10.5 51.18% ▲ (+0.15)

Merthyr Town Goals

Over 1.5 55.03% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 1.5 44.97% ▲ (+0.11)
Over 2.5 29.38% ▼ (-0.15)
Under 2.5 70.62% ▲ (+0.15)
Over 3.5 13.15% ▼ (-0.09)
Under 3.5 86.85% ▲ (+0.09)

AFC Telford United Goals

Over 0.5 66.7% ▲ (+0.16)
Under 0.5 33.3% ▼ (-0.16)
Over 1.5 37.96% ▲ (+0.33)
Under 1.5 62.04% ▼ (-0.33)
Over 2.5 16.55% ▲ (+0.11)
Under 2.5 83.45% ▼ (-0.10)
Over 3.5 5.44% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 3.5 94.56% ▼ (-0.04)

Score analysis

Merthyr Town 48.13%
Draw 22.57%
AFC Telford United 29.29%
Merthyr Town
2-1 @ 8.61% ▲ (+0.17)
2-0 @ 6.44% ▼ (-0.13)
1-0 @ 6.2% ▼ (-0.17)
3-1 @ 5.74% ▼ (-0.21)
3-2 @ 4.24% ▼ (-0.09)
3-0 @ 4.04% ▲ (+0.21)
Other @ 12.86% ▼ (-0.07)
Total : 48.13%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.21% ▼ (-0.04)
2-2 @ 7.11% ▲ (+0.11)
0-0 @ 3.75%
3-3 @ 2.21% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 0.29% ▼ (-0.04)
Total : 22.57%
AFC Telford United
1-2 @ 6.56% ▲ (+0.25)
0-1 @ 5.18% ▼ (-0.12)
1-3 @ 3.97% ▼ (-0.15)
0-2 @ 3.5% ▼ (-0.03)
2-3 @ 3.49% ▼ (-0.10)
0-3 @ 1.44% ▲ (+0.30)
Other @ 5.15% ▲ (+0.07)
Total : 29.29%

Head to Head

National League North
Nov 4, 2025 7.45pm
2
4
HT : 0 0
FT